Amazon has printed the quarter, and the tape did not pay it. Net sales were $201.9 billion, up 12 percent. AWS net sales increased 39.3 percent to $46.0 billion, the fastest growth in nearly five years, at a $184 billion annualized run rate. Operating income was $28.1 billion and the margin was 13.9 percent, which the company called its highest ever. Net income still fell, to $20.7 billion, or $1.89 a diluted share, from $21.2 billion, or $1.95. The release says that decrease is driven primarily by pre-tax gains of $9.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025 from the Anthropic investment.
The cash session did not need a miss against Amazon’s own July range to sell the stock. Sales of $201.9 billion sit inside the $197.0 billion to $202.0 billion guide. Operating income of $28.1 billion is $1.6 billion above the $26.5 billion top of that guide. Nasdaq’s quote page lists the Thursday cash close at $243.79, down $10.81, or 4.25 percent, from Wednesday’s official close of $254.60, and stamps it “Closed at Oct 29, 2026 4:00 PM ET.” At 4:31 p.m. ET the same page showed an after-hours last of $229.13, down $14.66, or 6.01 percent, from that close. The historical daily file, fetched after the close, still ends on Wednesday. The year-end path does not move until that file does.
From the Wednesday close of $254.60, the 44 sessions through 31 December 2026 still put the bull at $336.10, the base at $265.99, and the bear at $227.58. Those three prices are the last 90 daily log-returns. They are not a rerun on the after-hours print. The after-hours sale is $1.55 above the bear and $25.47, or 10.0 percent, under Wednesday. It is a print. It is not a new distribution. Alphabet’s third quarter is the parallel that already traded: Google Cloud up 103 percent, free cash flow negative, and Class C’s Thursday cash close at $282.32, down $39.57, or 12.29 percent, from Wednesday’s $321.89.
Quick take. AWS accelerated and operating income cleared the July top. Trailing free cash flow went to an outflow of $42.4 billion, from an inflow of $14.8 billion a year earlier, and the 2026 cash-capex line stayed at approximately $220 billion. The bull is still $336.10 and the bear is still $227.58, because both are chained to Wednesday’s $254.60 close.
Key facts
- AMZN’s last official close in the Nasdaq historical file is Wednesday 28 October 2026 at $254.60. The quote page lists Thursday’s cash close at $243.79, down 4.25 percent, and an after-hours last of $229.13 at 4:31 p.m. ET. Nasdaq.
- Bull $336.10, base $265.99, bear $227.58. Mean log-return mu is 0.00099508 and sample standard deviation sigma is 0.02351213 on the last 90 daily log-returns. N is 44 sessions from the Wednesday close through 31 December 2026. FinanceFeeds calculation on the saved historical file. Thursday is not in that file.
- The 20-day average is $255.17 and the 50-day average is $255.12, both measured on closes through Wednesday. Thursday’s cash close is $11.38 under the 20-day average. The after-hours print is not in either average.
- Third-quarter net sales were $201.9 billion, up 12 percent from $180.2 billion, or 13 percent excluding a $0.9 billion foreign-exchange headwind. AWS sales were $46.0 billion, up 39.3 percent. Operating income was $28.1 billion, against $17.4 billion. Net income was $20.7 billion, or $1.89 a share. Amazon third-quarter release, 29 October 2026.
- Trailing twelve-month operating cash flow was $168.3 billion, up 29 percent. Free cash flow was an outflow of $42.4 billion, against an inflow of $14.8 billion a year earlier. The release says the change is driven primarily by a $94.8 billion increase in purchases of property and equipment, net of proceeds, and that the increase primarily reflects artificial-intelligence investment.
- Fourth-quarter guidance, as of 29 October, is net sales of $240.0 billion to $247.0 billion, growth of 12 percent to 16 percent, and operating income of $28.5 billion to $33.5 billion, against $25.0 billion a year earlier. The company continues to expect 2026 cash capital expenditures of approximately $220 billion. Same release.
- Andy Jassy said AWS posted “over 39% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 ($184 billion revenue run rate) and projected revenue growth rates of over 40% both in 2027 and in 2028.” Same release.
- Alphabet Class C closed Thursday at $282.32, down 12.29 percent from $321.89. The FinanceFeeds Google distribution is still anchored to Tuesday’s $316.83 close.
What the Wednesday close still prices
The formula uses the last completed bar in the historical file. That file, fetched after Thursday’s cash close, still ends on Wednesday 28 October at $254.60. The high that day was $255.36 and the low was $251.98. Volume was 34,915,860 shares. Thursday’s $243.79 is the cash close on the quote page. The after-hours sale of $229.13 is a later print on the same page. Neither number is a row in the file the chart uses, so neither number enters the bull, the base, or the bear.
The path uses the last 90 daily log-returns in that file. The mean, mu, is 0.00099508. The sample standard deviation, sigma, dividing by 89, is 0.02351213. N is 44 sessions after Wednesday through 31 December 2026, skipping only Thanksgiving and Christmas. Early closes still count. Thursday is one of those 44 sessions. It has traded. It has not replaced the spot.
The arithmetic is unchanged. Base equals $254.60 times e to the power of 44 times 0.00099508, which is $265.99. Bull equals $254.60 times e to the power of 44 times mu plus 1.5 times sigma times the square root of 44, which is $336.10. Bear equals $254.60 times e to the power of 44 times mu minus sigma times the square root of 44, which is $227.58. The square root of 44 is 6.63325. Bull is 32.0 percent above the Wednesday close. Base is 4.5 percent above it, or $11.39. Bear is 10.6 percent below it. A mean daily log-return of 0.00099508 is too small to reach $336.10 without the volatility term.
The 20-day average through Wednesday is $255.17 and the 50-day is $255.12. The five sessions through Wednesday ran from $246.45 to $258.41. Thursday’s cash range was $241.24 to $249.14, so the low undercut that band by $5.21, and the $243.79 close finished inside the day. The after-hours sale at $229.13 is $12.11 under the cash low and $1.55 above the bear. From the 31 December 2025 close of $230.82, Wednesday was up $23.78. Thursday’s cash close gives $12.97 of that back.
| Case | Price | Versus the $254.60 close | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $336.10 | +32.0 percent | The 90-day drift holds and the path finishes 1.5 standard deviations above it. Thursday’s cash close and the after-hours print both trade the other way. |
| Base | $265.99 | +4.5 percent | The drift compounds and nothing else does. A $243.79 cash close is $22.20 under this price. Getting back there is a retracement, not the print the release just produced. |
| Bear | $227.58 | -10.6 percent | The same drift, one standard deviation lower, over the rest of the year. The 4:31 p.m. ET sale at $229.13 is $1.55 above it. One after-hours trade is not the year-end path. |
The prior English pair was a $320.39 bull and a $210.55 bear from the 23 October close of $248.00. Both ends have moved by more than a dollar. This base, $265.99, is what a near-zero drift looks like from $254.60. The release does not replace it.
What the release actually printed
The quarter ended 30 September 2026. Net sales were $201.9 billion, against $180.2 billion, up 12 percent. Excluding a $0.9 billion foreign-exchange headwind, growth was 13 percent. Prime Day sat in the second quarter for most large countries this year and entirely in the third quarter of 2025. The company says that excluding the shift, third-quarter growth would have been about 400 basis points higher. North America sales were $112.9 billion, up 6 percent. International sales were $43.1 billion, up 5 percent, or 8 percent excluding foreign exchange. AWS sales were $46.0 billion, up 39 percent in the segment paragraph and 39.3 percent in the headline. The segment table is $45,984 million, against $33,006 million.
Operating income was $28.1 billion, against $17.4 billion. North America contributed $8.7 billion, against $4.8 billion. International contributed $1.6 billion, against $1.2 billion. AWS contributed $17.8 billion, against $11.4 billion. The AWS table is $17,773 million on $45,984 million of sales, against $11,434 million on $33,006 million, a margin of about 38.7 percent against about 34.6 percent. Net income of $20.7 billion is the operating result with last year’s investment gain taken out.
The cash statement is the number that rhymes with Google. Operating cash flow for the twelve months ended 30 September was $168.3 billion, against $130.7 billion, up 29 percent. At 30 June that trailing operating figure was $161.403 billion, so the cash from operations did not crack. Free cash flow did. The highlight puts the trailing outflow at $42.4 billion, against an inflow of $14.8 billion a year earlier, and says the bridge is a $94.8 billion increase in property purchases, net of proceeds, primarily for artificial intelligence. At 30 June the trailing outflow was $7.604 billion. The same window is now $42.4 billion.
The cash-flow table supports the highlight. Purchases of property and equipment were $77,259 million in the quarter, against $35,095 million, and $215,192 million over the trailing twelve months, against $120,131 million. Proceeds from sales and incentives were $1,381 million in the quarter and $4,535 million over the trailing twelve months. Trailing operating cash of $168,300 million, minus purchases net of those proceeds, is an outflow of about $42.4 billion. Quarterly purchases of $77.259 billion were $31.275 billion larger than AWS sales of $45.984 billion. Depreciation and related amortization, a line that also includes capitalized content and leases, was $20,949 million in the quarter, against $16,796 million. Proceeds from long-term debt were $48,102 million in the quarter and $115,100 million in the first nine months.
“Our AWS investment in functionality and infrastructure is working, with over 39% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 ($184 billion revenue run rate) and projected revenue growth rates of over 40% both in 2027 and in 2028,” Andy Jassy, Amazon’s president and chief executive, said. He also said: “There has never been a trillion dollar revenue business, and we may have two of them in the next 5-10 years.” The 40 percent line is a revenue projection. It is not a new capex dollar. The guidance paragraph says the company continues to expect 2026 cash capital expenditures of approximately $220 billion. That is the same figure he used on the a16z podcast, reported by DatacenterDynamics, and the figure FinanceFeeds reported on 31 July when the plan moved up from about $200 billion. The release did not raise it.
Fourth-quarter guidance, dated 29 October, is net sales of $240.0 billion to $247.0 billion, growth of 12 percent to 16 percent, with about 60 basis points of foreign-exchange drag. Operating income of $28.5 billion to $33.5 billion, against $25.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Advertising grew 12 percent year over year excluding foreign exchange in the third quarter, which the company tied to Prime Day timing, and the company expects high-teens advertising growth in the fourth quarter. The release does not put a dollar on that 12 percent. The guide assumes no extra energy-derivative remeasurement and no new acquisition, restructuring, or settlement. The uncertainties named above the guide include tariffs and trade policy, memory chips, energy prices, and customer demand.
Google’s close, and the capex line that did not move
Alphabet’s quarter is the template the afternoon was trading. Google Cloud grew 103 percent to $30.7 billion. Purchases of property and equipment were $51.4 billion. Free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. The 2026 spending range stayed at $195 billion to $205 billion, and the finance chief said 2027 would be significantly higher without a new dollar. Class C’s cash close on Thursday was $282.32, down 12.29 percent from $321.89. After-hours at 4:33 p.m. ET was $280.58, only $1.74 under that close. Google did the damage in the cash session.
Amazon’s version is not the same percent. AWS added $12,978 million of sales. Google Cloud’s increase, off a quarter that more than doubled to $30.7 billion, is larger. Amazon’s quarterly property purchases were $77.259 billion, against Alphabet’s $51.4 billion, and Amazon’s trailing cash outflow is $42.4 billion, against Alphabet’s quarterly outflow of $9.1 billion. Apply Class C’s 12.29 percent drop to Wednesday’s $254.60 and the product is $223.31, or $4.27 under the bear. Amazon’s cash close did not print it. The after-hours sale at $229.13 stops $1.55 short. The release kept the 2026 dollar. The tape sold the equity anyway.
Chris Camillo wrote, at 2:35 p.m. ET, before the numbers: “You can be dead right about the business and still get absolutely crushed trading AI earnings right now. $AMZN could blow away every expectation tonight and get punished for raising capex to meet unprecedented demand.” The status is on X. Operating income did clear the company’s own top. The release did not raise the $220 billion line. The punishment arrived without that raise. At 3:04 p.m. ET, The Option Premium wrote that the spark was the capex guide: “If it comes in like Microsoft’s, the squeeze is on. If it comes in like Google’s, the trap’s for the bulls.” The status is on X. The post does not give Microsoft’s figure. Amazon’s guide kept a dollar and still described a heavier build, which is the part of the Google tape that was about 2027 rather than about a new 2026 number.
What the tape did with a beat
Two clocks, two stocks. Class C closed at $282.32, down $39.57. Amazon closed at $243.79, down $10.81, with a cash range of $241.24 to $249.14 and volume of about 75.0 million shares on the quote page, against 34.9 million on Wednesday. After the close the paths split again. Class C was $280.58 at 4:33 p.m. ET. Amazon was $229.13 at 4:31 p.m. ET, bid $229.00 and ask $229.39, down 6.01 percent from its own cash close and 10.0 percent from Wednesday.
M. Mohan had posted that AWS had to deliver 42 percent growth. After the number he wrote: “I dont think Amazon $AMZN LLM works. 39% AWS growth!” The status is on X. The 42 percent was his bar. The 39 percent is the release. At the same minute MoonBoy Capital wrote that the stock was “down 6% after hours,” which matches the 6.01 percent Nasdaq showed at 4:31 p.m. ET. The status is on X.
The bull still needs the volatility term. Mu does not get to $336.10 on its own, and a cash close at $243.79 moves the starting point the wrong way if Friday’s historical bar replaces Wednesday. The bear does not require a 13 percent day. It requires the drift minus one standard deviation over the remaining sessions. One after-hours trade at $229.13 can cover a large piece of that distance and still not be the official Friday close. Until the historical file prints a new last bar, the bull is $336.10, the base is $265.99, and the bear is $227.58.
This is not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Amazon stock prediction through 31 December 2026?
From the Nasdaq historical close of $254.60 on 28 October 2026, the bull is $336.10, the base is $265.99, and the bear is $227.58 over 44 sessions. Thursday’s cash close and the after-hours print are not in that file. The path is a volatility calculation on the last 90 daily log-returns, not a bank target.
What did the third-quarter report change?
Sales were $201.9 billion, inside the July range. Operating income was $28.1 billion, above the July top of $26.5 billion. AWS grew 39.3 percent to $46.0 billion. Net income fell to $20.7 billion because the year-ago quarter included a $9.5 billion Anthropic gain. Trailing free cash flow was an outflow of $42.4 billion. The 2026 cash-capex expectation stayed at approximately $220 billion.
Why does Google’s result still matter?
Google Cloud grew faster, and Class C still closed down 12.29 percent at $282.32. Amazon grew AWS more slowly, spent $77.259 billion on property and equipment in the quarter, and reported a deeper trailing cash outflow. The cash session fell 4.25 percent. After-hours then took the stock to $229.13, near the bear, without a higher 2026 capex dollar.
Is $336.10 the analyst target?
No. Yahoo Finance’s one-year mean on the quote page fetched before the release was $332.41, which is $3.69 under the bull and a different horizon. The bull is 44 sessions of Amazon’s own daily returns through Wednesday. This update does not publish a new street mean.
Does Thursday’s close replace the bull and the bear?
Not yet. The quote page lists a $243.79 cash close and a $229.13 after-hours sale. The historical file used for the formula still ends at $254.60. A later official bar can replace the spot. An after-hours trade cannot. The $229.13 sale is $1.55 above the bear and is not the year-end path.
Did Amazon raise the $220 billion plan?
The 29 October guidance says the company continues to expect 2026 cash capital expenditures of approximately $220 billion. Jassy projected AWS revenue growth of over 40 percent in 2027 and in 2028. That is a growth rate, not a higher spending dollar. The spending that did change is the trailing free-cash-flow outflow, now $42.4 billion.
